MARITIME DISEASE SPREAD MODELING USING SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTED-RECOVERED (SIR) MODELS

Abstract

The COVID-19 (C-19) epidemic aboard the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship offers a unique chance to assess its initial transmissibility through the basic reproduction number (Ro) and the efficacy of quarantine strategies.The research formulated a standard dynamic equation-based Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework with Bayesian foundations to calculate the primary variable of Ro, defined by transmission values, incubation duration, and recovered rate.The Probabilistic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate approach addressed the uncertainty factors arising from the C-19 epidemic in a few individuals on a cruise vessel.The expanded stratified SIR framework was presented to clarify the heterogeneity in communication routes based on the deck levels of customers and crew members.The total model projected Ro to be as high as 6.75.The complete duration of the pandemic without restrictions was roughly 48 days, culminating in a peak one month after the index incidence.The partial confinement method decreased the number of affected travelers by 64%.The deck-specific SIR approach revealed the variety of R estimations for each board.The projected Ro values were 5.25for guests, primarily due to within-deck delivery, and 2.5 for crew members, predominantly from between-deck communication.Modeling the dynamics of C-19 on the cruise vessel offers insights into prompt evacuations, early loneliness, and confinement, while clarifying the relative impacts of various dissemination modalities using the deck-stratified SIR framework.