THE AGRARIAN TRANSFORMATION OF UTTAR PRADESH: LAND HOLDINGS, POLICY INTERVENTIONS, PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, AND LIVELIHOOD TRAJECTORIES (2012-2025)

Abstract

Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most populous state with more than 240 million people, about 77% of whom still live in rural areas, remains at the heart of the country’s agrarian economy. Agriculture continues to sustain 59% of the rural workforce and contributes nearly one-fourth of the state’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). In recent years, this share has fluctuated between 13.7% in 2022–23 and 16.8% in 2023–24, with agricultural output estimated to grow by 17.7% in 2024–25. Despite this growth, the sector is dominated by small and marginal farmers (SMFs), who form 86.4% of the 2.3 crore agricultural households and cultivate on average less than one hectare of land. These farmers continue to face entrenched challenges: low and unstable incomes (₹8,931 per month on average), rising debt burdens, shrinking landholdings, worsening groundwater depletion, and high exposure to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. From the Kisan Rin Mochan Yojana and PMFBY to the Soil Health Cards, PM-KISAN, PMKSY, ODOP, the Agriculture Export Policy, and the emerging Digital Agriculture Policy, a spate of state and national policies during the last decade has tried to plug these holes while fast-tracking the sector into modernity. These have collectively pushed agricultural GVA from a sluggish 2.5% growth rate to 7.23% in 2022–23 and further to an estimated 17.7% in 2024–25. Production too has surged: foodgrain output rose from 45 million tonnes (MT) in 2012 to 66.8 MT in 2023–24, that of sugarcane from 150 MT to 200 MT, and milk production from 25 MT to 30 MT.

Incomes of SMFs have increased partly due to DBTs and digital delivery, which reduced leakages and marginally reduced migration. However, regional disparities persist: western UP is relatively better off because of better irrigation; eastern UP and Bundelkhand face chronic drought, fragmentation, and climate stress. Social disparities also remain sharp: women hold less than 13% of land titles, while Dalits continue to constitute a quarter of the landless laborers. This paper draws upon the NSSO series, ICRIER, NABARD, NITI Aayog, and the latest 2023–2025 estimates to critically review the impact of these policies on farmers in different landholding categories. It uses Punjab’s post-Green Revolution experience as a cautionary parallel to argue that UP’s progress, though real, remains unfinished. The paper concludes by advocating for inclusive, climate-resilient reforms necessary to achieve the Amrit Kaal dream of doubling farmers’ incomes by 2027.