MATERNAL EDUCATION, MOBILITY RISK, AND SPATIAL MISMATCH IN GIRLS’ TRANSITIONS TO ACCREDITED UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMABAD

Abstract

Girls’ transitions to accredited universities in Pakistan hinge on beliefs, household priorities, and the geography of reachable programs. We conducted a cross sectional survey of 300 grade 11–12 students in government schools across Islamabad (April-June 2025) to test five objectives: the association between maternal education and university self efficacy; effects of perceived transport safety and route complexity on application intention; mediation by parental preferences for single sex versus coeducational environments; links between income, sibship composition, and prioritization of sons; and spatial or programmatic mismatch between preferred fields and commute feasible accredited supply. Using mixed effects models, path analysis, and GIS based service areas with multiple imputation, we found that maternal education related positively to self efficacy, transport safety increased and route complexity decreased intention to apply, and parental preferences exerted a small mediating effect. Lower income and multiple sons aligned with greater reported prioritization of sons. Preferences for STEM and health were more often mismatched to local accredited offerings. Results suggest that strengthening capability beliefs without safer routes or nearby programs will underdeliver. Universities, transport agencies, and regulators can jointly expand feasible choice by improving corridor safety, simplifying transfers, and aligning program locations with realistic commuting ecologies.