LIVING UNDER CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT: CAUSES AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2025 INDO-PAK ESCALATION ALONG THE LINE OF CONTROL

Abstract

Early May 2025 witnessed the most profound military conflict between India and Pakistan, triggered by the April 22, 2025, attack in Pahalgam, in which 26 innocent lives were lost in Indian-administered Kashmir. It was reported as this attack was prompting India to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty and for Pakistan to impose airspace closures on Indian carriers though Pakistan has in turn threatened to walk away from the Shimla Agreement. In response to this attack, Intense cross-border shelling, drone attack, and sudden displacement of tens of thousands of border residents on both sides of the LoC were to follow India's retaliatory strikes on May 7, 2025, under a high-profile operation, "Operation Sindoor/Sindhoor." The war persisted until the announcement of a ceasefire on May 10, 2025. As much as this ceasefire could arrest escalation dynamics, the reverberations of political aftershocks were felt well into August 2025. This research study deals with both proximate and structural causes for the crisis; assembles open-source, media, and policy data on casualties, displacement, and service disruption; and evaluates the short- to mid-term socioeconomic impacts on civilian populations living along the LoC. It concludes with directed policy recommendations towards early recovery, risk reduction, and conflict-sensitive development in border communities. This article deals with both proximate and structural causes for the crisis; assembles open-source, media, and policy data on casualties, displacement, and service disruptions; and evaluates the short- and medium-term socio-economic impacts on civilian populations living along the LoC. (Zaman, 2025).